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Furthermore, it may come as a huge relief to the Air Force’s current crop of drone pilots and sensor operators, who are worked to the bone as-is—more than three times more hours a year than fighter pilots, the LA Times reported.

The Air Force, and the Defense Department for that matter, seem to finally be coming to terms with the realities of ongoing operations around the globe, and the demand for more RPA capacity in those conflicts—not less.

In the past 50 years, the U.S. has largely participated in wars of choice, but in the future this most likely will not be the case. The fight against ISIS in Syria, Iraq and Northern Africa is a sign of things to come. Unmanned aircraft, especially those that can be armed, are incredibly well adapted at the counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency fight.

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When it comes to striking targets of opportunity, where an F-16 needs to refuel almost every hour over the battle-zone, a Reaper can stay on target for dozens of hours without needing tanker support. This capability is also especially helpful for armed over-watch missions. When it comes to surveillance, drones can persist over an area of interest , doing all kinds of surveillance, some of it very exotic in nature , much longer than manned assets, all at much lower cost. The fact that no crew is onboard means that drones can penetrate deep into hostile territory without risking a crew or needing complex combat search and rescue forces on standby.

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Although the Air Force would love to plan and arm for the next great high-intensity, near peer-state conflict, it cannot just deny the dire need of the lower-intensity conflicts the U.S. remains mired in today. Just because you want a conflict to end does not mean the other side will agree, and what grows in the vacuum left by retreating American forces has proven to be darker in nature than what came before.

It seems as if the Defense Department, and possibly the White House, is finally learning this lesson. This proposal is also a sign that the Air Force is finally going to work toward addressing the cultural issues related to RPA force.

Things have gone much better for another Shell initiative that was begun in 1965, albeit with far less fanfare. Jimmy Davidson, the head of economics and planning for Shell’s exploration and production division, tapped the company veteran Ted Newland to start an activity called Long-Term Studies at the London headquarters. “I was placed in a little cubicle on the 18th floor and told to think about the future, with no real indications of what was required of me,” Newland recalls. His appointment marked the start of a remarkable and still ongoing experiment in using scenario planning to engage with an uncertain future.

Under the leadership of Newland and Davidson, who became Shell’s first overall head of planning in 1967, the “futures” operation began to take shape. Newland started by delivering a “Year 2000” study report. Then, together with his new colleague Henk Alkema, he began to develop long-term outlooks in the form of alternative futures. The very first oil-price scenarios prepared by this duo were sent to senior executives by mid-1971. Around this time Davidson brought in Pierre Wack, who had been the head of planning for Shell Française, to try to secure the attention and interest of Shell’s most senior executives. Wack, a former magazine editor with a bent for Eastern philosophy and mysticism, focused on telling plausible stories about how the wider business context of Shell might develop. Together with Newland he came to define the practice of scenario planning at Shell; each man headed the team at some point during an eventful decade of oil crises and economic turmoil that they and their colleagues had to some extent envisioned ahead of time. (Wack described the development of some of the early scenarios in his article “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead,” HBR September–October 1985.) But Shell-style scenario planning has never really been about predicting the future. Its value lies in how scenarios are embedded in—and provide vital links between—organizational processes such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development. It has helped break the habit, ingrained in most corporate planning, of assuming that the future will look much like the present. As unthreatening stories, scenarios enable Shell executives to open their minds to previously inconceivable or imperceptible developments.

Scenario planning has now been in use at Shell for more than 45 years, spanning times of great triumph and prominence—especially in the 1970s—but also long stretches during which company leaders struggled to see its value. It has come close to being shut down at least three times. But it has continued to evolve and help shape the company’s global thinking about energy and other matters—and, at times, its strategy. For an operation that doesn’t contribute directly to the bottom line, and that emphasizes the uncertainty of the future rather than making bold predictions, this is remarkable.

The first formal round of Shell scenarios was completed in November 1971. Since then Shell’s scenario planners have produced 34 rounds of global and long-term energy scenarios and updates and many more-focused ones. Some synopsized examples are included here and on the following pages, under the actual Shell titles.

Shell scenarios 1973
“Crisis Scenario”

A late response to an impending energy gap causes oil prices to spiral upward. Producer governments exert tight control on the industry through nationalization.

“Dirigiste Solution”

The governments of consumer nations intervene in energy markets, supported by public opinion. The energy industry gets subsidies, constraints are imposed on consumption, and conservation is encouraged.

(This was a very active year for scenarios: The above are just two of the six that were issued in January, and two more, focused on the likelihood of an energy shortage, came nine months later.)

Shell scenarios 1977
“Carter Miracle”

The moral leadership exuded by U.S. President Jimmy Carter restores confidence. Governments take measures to strengthen international trade and investment.


Recovery is slower than normal. Unemployment combines with a dim view of government in general to make the system fragile.


Inflation rises sharply, as do wages. The global economy is buffeted by conflict in the Middle East and other external shocks.

Shell scenarios 1989
“Global Mercantilism”

Economic power is the driving force. Conflicting regional interests affect economic security and the environment. Protectionism grows, and trade is managed through bilateral agreements. Many developing countries are left behind.

“Sustainable World”

The environment dominates the agenda. The global economic system is resilient, and developing countries are brought on board. Growth in the energy business is limited. An emphasis on clean fuels leads to a reconstruction of the industry.

Shell scenarios 1995
“Just Do It!”

Success comes to those who harness the latest innovations in technology to take advantage of quick-moving opportunities in a world of hypercompetition, customization, self-reliance, and informal networking.

“Da Wo”

(Chinese for “Big Me”) Countries and companies discover that relationships of trust and the enabling role of government provide long-term strategic advantage. This favors Asia, because its people and businesses view individual and societal welfare as inextricably linked.

Shell scenarios 2001
“Business Class”

A globally interconnected elite and the only remaining superpower lead the world toward greater economic integration and prosperity. Cities and other power centers diminish the influence of national governments and unleash a “new medievalism.”


The persistent power of culture and history shape a “new regionalism,” putting the monochromatic world of global integration in question.

Shell scenarios 2013

Governments play a strong role, helping to develop more-compact cities and to transform the global transportation network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, resulting in a moderation of greenhouse gas emissions.


Strong economic growth accelerates energy demand. Power is more widely distributed, and governments are slower to agree on major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: Oil and coal remain part of the mix, and greenhouse gas emissions bring dramatic climate change.

Read more

The practice is also enjoying a renaissance outside Shell, with growing evidence of its effectiveness. A recent survey of 77 large companies by René Rohrbeck, of Aarhus University, and Jan Oliver Schwarz, of Germany’s EBS Business School, found that formal “strategic foresight” efforts add value through (1) an enhanced capacity to perceive change, (2) an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change, (3) influence on other actors, and (4) an enhanced capacity for organizational learning. Two Bain researchers reported in 2007 that the firm’s regular survey of management tools showed “an abrupt and sustained surge” in the use of scenario planning after 9/11 ( “A Growing Focus on Preparedness,” HBR July–August 2007), and although there have been ups and downs since, Bain’s most recent survey showed that 65% of companies expected to use scenario planning in 2011.

Tickets are used for both bug reports and feature development, and may be created by anyone with a account.

Trac tickets are organized into components (see “Component Maintainers” above), and use keywords to identify further details of the ticket. If your ticket is ever labeled with a keyword you’re unfamiliar with, reference the complete list of Trac Workflow Keywords .

To make it easier for new contributors, some tickets have been marked as Good First Bugs , using the “good-first-bug” keyword. These tickets are not always the easiest to work on, but are self-contained and have support from the core team. Usually, the ticket has been investigated and a path forward has been decided. All that’s left is creating the final patch to commit. Tickets like these help get new contributors (like you!) comfortable with the process of contributing and working in both Trac and development environments.

Everyone is encouraged to submit bug reports and feature requests directly to trac, but certain tickets are better than others. Here’s some advice on ensuring your ticket is well-formed:

WordPress developers do their best to prevent security issues, but from time-to-time they appear and need to be reported.

It is standard practice to responsibly and privately disclose security issues to the vendor – in this case, the WordPress core development team. WordPress contributors practice responsible disclosure when reporting issues to other vendors as well. Reporting issues responsibly, prior to publishing, gives the vendor time to fix a security vulnerability and minimize damage to users.

In short, be courteous and aware before you file a ticket that might include a security vulnerability. Refer to the Reporting Security Vulnerabilities page of this handbook for instructions on how to responsibly report issues to the WordPress Security Team.

Once you’ve made changes to your WordPress development environment and are happy with those changes, you’ll want to create a patch that can be attached to your trac ticket. There are many ways to do this.

From command line in the SVN root directory (located in the wordpress-develop folder of your VVV instance) you can run this command to generate a patch: svn diff > 00000.patch

There are other, UI-based ways to create patches as well. SourceTree is an excellent alternative to using the command line. Josh Pollack has EYEWEAR Sunglasses Polaroid 3Xxu9
on how to create a patch using this method.

WordPress development happens through our official SVN and GIT repositories. As a result, we do not monitor or accept pull requests (PRs) from GitHub. However, you can still create a patch from your git repository and attach the patch to your ticket. To do so:

Alert: We need to add information on creating a Git patch here.

Sometimes you may find yourself in a ticket that has been open for many years. More often than not these tickets have patches that need a refresh. It’s important to know why code has changed and how the refresh needs to be handled. If you browse trunk you will see that you can view the code of each file that makes up WordPress.

Use this option to override the number of step signals required to move between next/prev menu items.

Test your encoder’s behavior first with both of the following options disabled.

This option reverses the encoder direction everywhere. Set if CLOCKWISE causes values to DECREASE.

This option reverses the encoder direction for navigating LCD menus. If CLOCKWISE normally moves DOWN this makes it go UP. If CLOCKWISE normally moves UP this makes it go DOWN.

Add individual axis homing items (Home X, Home Y, and Home Z) to the LCD menu.

By default Marlin assumes you have a buzzer with a fixed frequency. If you have a speaker that can produce tones, enable it here.

The duration and frequency for the UI feedback sound. Set these to 0 to disable audio feedback in the LCD menus. Test audio output with the G-code M300 S<frequency Hz> P<duration ms>

Marlin includes support for several controllers. The two most popular controllers supported by Marlin are:

Most other LCD controllers are variants of these. Enable just one of the following options for your specific controller:

These controllers all require the LiquidCrystal_I2C library .

Increase the FAN PWM frequency. Removes the PWM noise but increases heating in the FET/Arduino.

Use software PWM to drive the fan, as with the heaters. This uses a very low frequency which is not as annoying as with the hardware PWM. On the other hand, if this frequency is too low, you should also increment SOFT_PWM_SCALE .

Incrementing this by 1 will double the software PWM frequency, affecting heaters (and the fan if FAN_SOFT_PWM is enabled). However, control resolution will be halved for each increment; at zero value, there are 128 effective control positions.

If SOFT_PWM_SCALE is set to a value higher than 0, dithering can be used to mitigate the associated resolution loss. If enabled, some of the PWM cycles are stretched so on average the desired duty cycle is attained.

Temperature status LEDs that display the hotend and bed temperature. If all hotend and bed temperature setpoint are < 54C then the BLUE led is on. Otherwise the RED led is on. There is 1C hysteresis.

M240 triggers a camera by emulating a Canon RC-1 Remote Data as described on this site .

Files sliced with SkeinForge contain the wrong arc GCodes when using “Arc Point” as fillet procedure. This option works around that bug, but otherwise should be left off.

Marlin includes support for the Baricuda Extruder for 3D Printing Sugar and Chocolate also hosted on GitHub . The feature adds the codes M126 , M127 , M128 , and M129 for controlling the pump and valve of the Baricuda.

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